The rise of Reform UK could provide other smaller parties with routes to seats in the Warwickshire County Council elections.

That is the verdict of an independent councillor ahead of May's ballots that are set to have a huge bearing on Warwickshire's future. 

Those elected are set to be the last representatives of the county council as we know it with county, district and borough councils set to make way for either one or two new unitary authorities – single-tier councils that deal with all services – from 2028.

It will be a key time with those in power shaping how proposals for the new authorities come together alongside those already elected to the districts and boroughs and the elections come at a time of political flux in Warwickshire and nationally.

What the pollsters think 

Polls produced in March by political consultants and electoral researchers Electoral Calculus anticipate that as many as one in four votes cast across Warwickshire's 57 seats – 25 per cent – could go to Reform, resulting in 16 seats to make it the second largest party. 

The Conservatives, currently in power with 42 seats, are expected to endure heavy losses but still emerge as the frontrunners from a mixed bag, retaining 18 seats.

The Tories had 48.6 per cent of the vote share when they swept to power in 2021, a figure that is predicted to drop to 27 per cent this time. 

Labour, elected into national government last year, are expected to fall well short of major influence and actually drop in vote share from 2021. They are polling at 20 per cent this time but stand to gain two seats, which would result in a total of eight. 

The Liberal Democrats are expected to yield six more seats, moving up to 11 by narrowly increasing its vote share to 17 per cent having taken 15.3 per cent last time.

The Green Party is expected to hold its three seats but suffer a drop in vote share from 12.6 per cent last time to eight per cent this time around. 

The local view

Cllr Judy Falp (Independent, Whitnash) expects Reform to have a big say but suggests that split votes with the big two may turn out to be beneficial for the more established smaller parties in some areas. 

"I think the Conservatives are more worried than some of the others," she said. 

"Labour are worried now, I think, because of what is happening nationally. Some people are unhappy with the government and they are still unhappy with the Conservatives. 

"For me, the bigger parties are the ones who should be worried. The Liberals don't seem to have upset anyone, the Greens are doing better, although I'm not sure people are voting Green but they are voting for alternatives.

"The Liberal vote is often split. You would assume people would vote for them if they didn't want to vote for the big two but it doesn't always turn out that way, although in Warwickshire they do vote for the Liberal councillors who have been here a long time and are known for doing a good job."

She cited a recent Warwick District Council by-election in Warwick All Saints & Woodloes where the Greens won a seat from Labour but one of the more telling elements was that Reform finished second ahead of Labour in third and the Conservatives in fourth.

Asked whether Reform could gain enough seats to have influence at Shire Hall, Cllr Falp replied: "I'm not sure. 

"In my opinion, the south is likely to go more Liberal rather than Reform but I can certainly see the north of the county going that way.

"Warwick district tends to buck the trend, we always seem to have a mix of people and parties. There are a lot of Conservative-held seats in Rugby, you would think they could go towards Labour but maybe the Liberals could pick up there."

On the prospect of Reform splitting votes with the bigger parties, allowing others through the gap, she said: "I think that is what some of the parties are hoping for.

"As a resident, I like the fact that there is more choice. If you don't like these regular parties, perhaps you do want to vote for someone new, or a non-political party like Whitnash Residents' Association.

"If people aren't happy with other parties perhaps they will look to smaller ones but the question is still whether that person will look after you and your area. It is no good making a protest vote if they then don't do the job you want them to. 

"The key thing is making sure they are for you and your area."

Cllr Falp is seeking reelection to her Whitnash seat and is up against Aidan Flaherty (Reform UK), Ben Jackson (Conservative), Justine Ragany (Liberal Democrats), Sarah Richards (Green), Laurie Steele (UKIP) and Daniel Wilkinson (Labour).